Introduction to Expected Value (+EV) Betting

Ask any amateur bettor how they pick games, and they will say: 'I think the Chiefs will win.' Ask a professional bettor, and they will say: 'The Chiefs' line is priced at -110, but my model says they should be -130. There is value on the Chiefs.'

This shift in mindset—from predicting winners to identifying mispriced odds—is the foundation of Expected Value (+EV) betting.

Expected Value measures the amount a bettor can expect to win or lose per bet if the exact same bet were placed many times. The formula is simple:

EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won per Bet) - (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost per Bet)

For example, if you place a $100 bet on a team with +110 odds (wins $110, loses $100) and your simulation model says they have a 50% chance of winning:
EV = (0.50 * $110) - (0.50 * $100) = $55 - $50 = +$5.

An EV of +$5 means that, on average, you will make $5 for every $100 bet. If you place 1,000 of these bets, you stand to profit $5,000. VegasSims does this calculation automatically for you, matching simulator output against the latest odds to flag value plays.