MLB
Monday, July 06 at 02:10 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
Away
50-40 (25-19 Away)
Projected Final Score
4.6
—
2.9
Projected Total: 7.5 (O/U: 15.9)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
PHI: +3300
|
KC: -10000
KC
Kansas City Royals
Home
36-54 (20-26 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Philadelphia Phillies Win Prob
65.8%
+62.9% Value Edge
Kansas City Royals Win Prob
34.2%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Philadelphia Phillies to win outright in 65.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHI +12.4 / KC -12.4
PHI covers
(-134)
+42.7% Edge
100.0%
KC covers
(+89)
0.0%
Total
O/U: 15.9
OVER
(-87)
4.4%
UNDER
(+12)
+6.3% Edge
95.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PHI starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.064).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: PHI relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the KC bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at KC's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: PHI enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 53%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Philadelphia Phillies winning outright in 65.8% of run trials, with a projected score of PHI 4.6 - KC 3.0. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with PHI +12.4 covering in 100.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 15.9 which hit in 95.6% of runs.
Starting Pitchers Matchup
PHI
Cristopher Sánchez
Away Starter
ERA
2.00
WHIP
1.09
Record
10-3
IP
117.0
SO
136
GS
18
KC
Noah Cameron
Home Starter
ERA
4.95
WHIP
1.41
Record
4-6
IP
83.2
SO
75
GS
16
Top Offensive Performers
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