MLB
Tuesday, July 07 at 07:45 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIL
Milwaukee Brewers
Away
55-33 (26-15 Away)
Projected Final Score
4.6
—
3.7
Projected Total: 8.3 (O/U: 8.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIL: -155
|
STL: +130
STL
St. Louis Cardinals
Home
47-40 (23-21 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Milwaukee Brewers Win Prob
57.5%
No Value Edge
St. Louis Cardinals Win Prob
42.5%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Milwaukee Brewers to win outright in 57.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIL -1.5 / STL +1.5
MIL covers
(-110)
44.0%
STL covers
(-110)
+3.6% Edge
56.0%
Total
O/U: 8.5
OVER
(-115)
43.9%
UNDER
(-105)
+4.9% Edge
56.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đ Bullpen Advantage: MIL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the STL bullpen.
- • đïž Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • đ„ Momentum Streak: MIL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 64%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Milwaukee Brewers winning outright in 57.5% of run trials, with a projected score of MIL 4.6 - STL 3.7. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with STL +1.5 covering in 56.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 8.5 which hit in 56.1% of runs.
Starting Pitchers Matchup
MIL
TBD
Away Starter
No active stats cached for starter.
STL
TBD
Home Starter
No active stats cached for starter.
Top Offensive Performers
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