WNBA
Wednesday, July 15 at 01:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LA
Los Angeles Sparks
Away
10-13 (5-6 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
81.9
—
94.7
Projected Total: 176.6 (O/U: 182.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LA: +470
|
MIN: -660
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Home
19-6 (9-4 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Los Angeles Sparks Win Prob
19.4%
+1.9% Value Edge
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
80.6%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 80.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LA +11.4 / MIN -11.4
LA covers
(-110)
46.7%
MIN covers
(-110)
+0.9% Edge
53.3%
Total
O/U: 182.6
OVER
(-110)
34.1%
UNDER
(-110)
+13.5% Edge
65.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 85.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • ๐ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 113.0 vs LA's Defensive Rating of 108.6.
- • โ Injury Impact: MIN ratings adjusted (OffRating: -7.5, DefRating: +4.2) with Napheesa Collier ruled OUT.
- • ๐ Season Records: MIN is 18-6 (Home: 8-4) vs LA 10-12 (Away: 5-5).
- • ๐ฅ Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 1.022 | LA factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 80.6% of trials. Projected score: LA 82 - MIN 95.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
๐ Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 104.3
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 126.1
DRtg: 112.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 101.0
๐ฏ Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
42.5% / 44.8%
3-Point %
32.5% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
76.8% / 78.5%
โก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Los Angeles Sparks
Minnesota Lynx
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Los Angeles Sparks
L
@ Atlanta Dream
92 - 101
|
Jul 13, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
102 - 87
|
Jul 10, 2026
W
vs Indiana Fever
106 - 92
|
Jul 08, 2026
L
vs Seattle Storm
64 - 82
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
87 - 111
|
Jun 27, 2026
Minnesota Lynx
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
104 - 100
|
Jul 13, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
90 - 85
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
86 - 80
|
Jul 08, 2026
L
vs Connecticut Sun
89 - 90
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ New York Liberty
86 - 99
|
Jul 03, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Minnesota Lynx defeated Los Angeles Sparks
99 - 83
|
Jun 17, 2026