WNBA
Thursday, July 16 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
POR
Portland Fire
Away
11-14 (5-8 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
76.8
—
81.7
Projected Total: 158.5 (O/U: 162.7)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
POR: +205
|
WSH: -255
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
12-11 (5-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Portland Fire Win Prob
36.4%
+3.6% Value Edge
Washington Mystics Win Prob
63.6%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 63.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: POR +6.5 / WSH -6.5
POR covers
(-110)
+1.4% Edge
53.8%
WSH covers
(-110)
46.2%
Total
O/U: 162.7
OVER
(-110)
38.3%
UNDER
(-105)
+10.5% Edge
61.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 105.9 vs POR's Defensive Rating of 108.7.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 12-10 (Home: 5-5) vs POR 10-14 (Away: 4-8).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.036 | POR factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 63.6% of trials. Projected score: POR 77 - WSH 82.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 79.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 122.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 110.7
DRtg: 112.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 103.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
43.8% / 43.3%
3-Point %
32.5% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Portland Fire
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Portland Fire
L
@ Connecticut Sun
87 - 90
|
Jul 14, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
102 - 92
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
80 - 88
|
Jul 09, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
77 - 72
|
Jul 04, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
123 - 124
|
Jun 28, 2026
Washington Mystics
W
@ Toronto Tempo
79 - 62
|
Jul 14, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
84 - 79
|
Jul 12, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
49 - 62
|
Jul 06, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Dream
81 - 76
|
Jul 02, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
124 - 123
|
Jun 28, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Portland Fire
124 - 123
|
Jun 28, 2026