WNBA
Thursday, July 16 at 09:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
13-11 (6-6 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
86.4
—
82.7
Projected Total: 169.1 (O/U: 169.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: +115
|
DAL: -135
DAL
Dallas Wings
Home
16-8 (7-3 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty Win Prob
60.3%
+13.8% Value Edge
Dallas Wings Win Prob
39.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 60.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY +3.7 / DAL -3.7
NY covers
(-110)
+13.5% Edge
65.9%
DAL covers
(-110)
34.1%
Total
O/U: 169.1
OVER
(-110)
27.4%
UNDER
(-110)
+20.3% Edge
72.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: DAL holds an Offensive Rating of 110.4 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 100.4.
- • 📊 Season Records: DAL is 16-8 (Home: 7-3) vs NY 13-11 (Away: 6-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DAL factor: 1.05 | NY factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 60.3% of trials. Projected score: NY 86 - DAL 83.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.1
ORtg: 111.3
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 108.7
DRtg: 103.3
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.7
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.6%
3-Point %
34.9% / 32.2%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 80.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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New York Liberty
Dallas Wings
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
L
@ Toronto Tempo
91 - 93
|
Jul 12, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
85 - 90
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Dallas Wings
77 - 88
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86
|
Jul 03, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
93 - 85
|
Jun 30, 2026
Dallas Wings
W
vs Chicago Sky
96 - 91
|
Jul 12, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
108 - 95
|
Jul 10, 2026
W
@ New York Liberty
88 - 77
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
89 - 76
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
86 - 83
|
Jul 02, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Dallas Wings defeated New York Liberty
88 - 77
|
Jul 07, 2026
Away
Dallas Wings defeated New York Liberty
91 - 76
|
May 24, 2026
Injury Reports
New York Liberty 3 reported
Dallas Wings 0 reported
No major injuries reported.