WNBA Thursday, July 16 at 09:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY

New York Liberty

Away

13-11 (6-6 Away)

Last 5 Form
W W L L L
Projected Final Score
86.4 82.7
Projected Total: 169.1 (O/U: 169.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: +115 | DAL: -135
DAL

Dallas Wings

Home

16-8 (7-3 Home)

Last 5 Form
W W W W W

Simulated Outcome Probability

New York Liberty Win Prob
60.3%
+13.8% Value Edge
Dallas Wings Win Prob
39.7%
No Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 60.3% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: NY +3.7 / DAL -3.7
NY covers (-110) +13.5% Edge 65.9%
DAL covers (-110) 34.1%
Total O/U: 169.1
OVER (-110) 27.4%
UNDER (-110) +20.3% Edge 72.7%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: DAL holds an Offensive Rating of 110.4 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 100.4.
  • 📊 Season Records: DAL is 16-8 (Home: 7-3) vs NY 13-11 (Away: 6-6).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DAL factor: 1.05 | NY factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 60.3% of trials. Projected score: NY 86 - DAL 83.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.8 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 80.1
ORtg: 111.3 Offensive Rating ORtg: 108.7
DRtg: 103.3 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 108.7

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.6%
3-Point %
34.9% / 32.2%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 80.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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New York Liberty

Dallas Wings

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

New York Liberty

L @ Toronto Tempo
91 - 93 | Jul 12, 2026
L @ Minnesota Lynx
85 - 90 | Jul 11, 2026
L vs Dallas Wings
77 - 88 | Jul 07, 2026
W vs Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86 | Jul 03, 2026
W vs Las Vegas Aces
93 - 85 | Jun 30, 2026

Dallas Wings

W vs Chicago Sky
96 - 91 | Jul 12, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
108 - 95 | Jul 10, 2026
W @ New York Liberty
88 - 77 | Jul 07, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
89 - 76 | Jul 05, 2026
W @ Connecticut Sun
86 - 83 | Jul 02, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Away Dallas Wings defeated New York Liberty
88 - 77 | Jul 07, 2026
Away Dallas Wings defeated New York Liberty
91 - 76 | May 24, 2026

Injury Reports

New York Liberty 3 reported

F Leonie Fiebich
Out
G Marine Johannes
Out
F Satou Sabally
Out

Dallas Wings 0 reported

No major injuries reported.