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WNBA Friday, July 17 at 07:30 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Away 15-10 (7-6 Away)
L L W L W
Projected Final Score
84.1 — 87.0
TOR

Toronto Tempo

Home 10-15 (6-9 Home)
L L L W L
Spread
ATL -9.5 (-110)
TOR +9.5 (-110)
Total
Posted 181.5 (-110)
Simulated 171.1
Moneyline
ATL -415
TOR +320

Simulated Outcome Probability

Atlanta Dream
41.9%
Toronto Tempo
58.1%
No edge at -415
+34.3% edge at +320

Our 10,000 iterations project the Toronto Tempo to win outright in 58.1% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: ATL -9.5 / TOR +9.5
ATL covers (-110) 20.1%
TOR covers (-110) +27.5% Edge 79.9%
Total O/U: 181.5
OVER (-110) 24.3%
UNDER (-110) +23.3% Edge 75.7%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 84.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: TOR holds an Offensive Rating of 106.3 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 102.1.
  • • 📊 Season Records: TOR is 10-14 (Home: 6-8) vs ATL 14-10 (Away: 6-6).
  • • 🔥 Momentum Factors: TOR factor: 0.964 | ATL factor: 1.008 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Toronto Tempo winning outright in 58.1% of trials. Projected score: ATL 84 - TOR 87.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.2 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 120.5 Offensive Rating ORtg: 115.7
DRtg: 107.4 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 110.3

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
40.9% / 44.5%
3-Point %
30.8% / 34.0%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 79.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Atlanta Dream

Toronto Tempo

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Atlanta Dream

W vs Los Angeles Sparks
101 - 92 | Jul 13, 2026
L vs Portland Fire
92 - 102 | Jul 11, 2026
W vs Seattle Storm
89 - 78 | Jul 09, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
83 - 88 | Jul 04, 2026
L @ Washington Mystics
76 - 81 | Jul 02, 2026

Toronto Tempo

L vs Washington Mystics
62 - 79 | Jul 14, 2026
W vs New York Liberty
93 - 91 | Jul 12, 2026
L vs Dallas Wings
95 - 108 | Jul 10, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
75 - 83 | Jul 08, 2026
L vs Dallas Wings
76 - 89 | Jul 05, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Atlanta Dream defeated Toronto Tempo
94 - 87 | Jun 22, 2026
Away Atlanta Dream defeated Toronto Tempo
102 - 77 | Jun 14, 2026

Injury Reports

Atlanta Dream 1 reported

F Brionna Jones
Out

Toronto Tempo 3 reported

G Marina Mabrey
Out
F Aneesah Morrow
Out
G Brittney Sykes
Out