WNBA
Saturday, July 18 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
13-12 (6-7 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
88.9
—
84.8
Projected Total: 173.7 (O/U: 181.7)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: -135
|
IND: +110
IND
Indiana Fever
Home
16-10 (10-5 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty Win Prob
61.0%
+3.6% Value Edge
Indiana Fever Win Prob
39.0%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 61.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY -2.2 / IND +2.2
NY covers
(-110)
+2.8% Edge
55.2%
IND covers
(-110)
44.8%
Total
O/U: 181.7
OVER
(-110)
28.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+18.7% Edge
71.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 112.7 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 97.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: IND is 15-10 (Home: 9-5) vs NY 13-11 (Away: 6-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 0.992 | NY factor: 1.008 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 61.0% of trials. Projected score: NY 89 - IND 85.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 111.1
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 126.5
DRtg: 103.5
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 112.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 45.3%
3-Point %
34.9% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Indiana Fever
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
L
@ Toronto Tempo
91 - 93
|
Jul 12, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
85 - 90
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Dallas Wings
77 - 88
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
vs Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86
|
Jul 03, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
93 - 85
|
Jun 30, 2026
Indiana Fever
W
vs Seattle Storm
110 - 107
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
75 - 88
|
Jul 15, 2026
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75
|
Jul 12, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
92 - 89
|
Jul 09, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
92 - 106
|
Jul 08, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New York Liberty defeated Indiana Fever
83 - 75
|
Jun 06, 2026