WNBA Saturday, July 18 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY

New York Liberty

Away

13-12 (6-7 Away)

Last 5 Form
W W L L L
Projected Final Score
88.9 84.8
Projected Total: 173.7 (O/U: 181.7)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: -135 | IND: +110
IND

Indiana Fever

Home

16-10 (10-5 Home)

Last 5 Form
L W W L W

Simulated Outcome Probability

New York Liberty Win Prob
61.0%
+3.6% Value Edge
Indiana Fever Win Prob
39.0%
No Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 61.0% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: NY -2.2 / IND +2.2
NY covers (-110) +2.8% Edge 55.2%
IND covers (-110) 44.8%
Total O/U: 181.7
OVER (-110) 28.9%
UNDER (-110) +18.7% Edge 71.1%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 112.7 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 97.5.
  • 📊 Season Records: IND is 15-10 (Home: 9-5) vs NY 13-11 (Away: 6-6).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 0.992 | NY factor: 1.008 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 61.0% of trials. Projected score: NY 89 - IND 85.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 78.8 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 111.1 Offensive Rating ORtg: 126.5
DRtg: 103.5 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 112.2

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
46.2% / 45.3%
3-Point %
34.9% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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New York Liberty

Indiana Fever

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

New York Liberty

L @ Toronto Tempo
91 - 93 | Jul 12, 2026
L @ Minnesota Lynx
85 - 90 | Jul 11, 2026
L vs Dallas Wings
77 - 88 | Jul 07, 2026
W vs Minnesota Lynx
99 - 86 | Jul 03, 2026
W vs Las Vegas Aces
93 - 85 | Jun 30, 2026

Indiana Fever

W vs Seattle Storm
110 - 107 | Jul 17, 2026
L vs Golden State Valkyries
75 - 88 | Jul 15, 2026
W @ Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75 | Jul 12, 2026
W @ Phoenix Mercury
92 - 89 | Jul 09, 2026
L @ Los Angeles Sparks
92 - 106 | Jul 08, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home New York Liberty defeated Indiana Fever
83 - 75 | Jun 06, 2026

Injury Reports

New York Liberty 3 reported

F Leonie Fiebich
Out
G Marine Johannes
Out
F Satou Sabally
Out

Indiana Fever 3 reported

C Aliyah Boston
Out
C Damiris Dantas
Out
G Bree Hall
Out