WNBA
Saturday, July 18 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
POR
Portland Fire
Away
11-15 (5-9 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
78.9
—
86.4
Projected Total: 165.3 (O/U: 173.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
POR: +535
|
MIN: -795
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Home
20-6 (10-4 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Portland Fire Win Prob
29.5%
+13.8% Value Edge
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
70.5%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 70.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: POR +13.0 / MIN -13.0
POR covers
(-110)
+13.3% Edge
65.7%
MIN covers
(-110)
34.3%
Total
O/U: 173.5
OVER
(-110)
28.5%
UNDER
(-110)
+19.1% Edge
71.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 108.9 vs POR's Defensive Rating of 106.9.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: MIN ratings adjusted (OffRating: -7.5, DefRating: +4.2) with Napheesa Collier ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: MIN is 19-6 (Home: 9-4) vs POR 11-14 (Away: 5-8).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 1.036 | POR factor: 0.992 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 70.5% of trials. Projected score: POR 79 - MIN 86.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 79.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 119.4
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 123.6
DRtg: 111.4
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 101.1
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
43.8% / 44.8%
3-Point %
32.5% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 78.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Portland Fire
Minnesota Lynx
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Portland Fire
W
@ Washington Mystics
75 - 56
|
Jul 16, 2026
L
@ Connecticut Sun
87 - 90
|
Jul 14, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
102 - 92
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
80 - 88
|
Jul 09, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
77 - 72
|
Jul 04, 2026
Minnesota Lynx
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
96 - 87
|
Jul 15, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
104 - 100
|
Jul 13, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
90 - 85
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
86 - 80
|
Jul 08, 2026
L
vs Connecticut Sun
89 - 90
|
Jul 06, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Portland Fire
107 - 74
|
Jun 15, 2026