MLB
Monday, July 06 at 06:40 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYY
New York Yankees
Away
49-40 (26-20 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.9
—
3.1
Projected Total: 7.0 (O/U: 7.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NYY: -119
|
TB: +80
TB
Tampa Bay Rays
Home
52-35 (31-12 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Yankees Win Prob
57.0%
+2.7% Value Edge
Tampa Bay Rays Win Prob
43.0%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 57.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYY -1.5 / TB +1.5
NYY covers
(+148)
+1.5% Edge
41.8%
TB covers
(-175)
58.2%
Total
O/U: 7.5
OVER
(+11)
39.7%
UNDER
(-120)
+5.9% Edge
60.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: TB starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.032).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: NYY relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the TB bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at TB's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: TB enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 60%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 57.0% of run trials, with a projected score of NYY 3.9 - TB 3.1. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with TB +1.5 covering in 58.2% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.5 which hit in 60.4% of runs.
Starting Pitchers Matchup
NYY
Cam Schlittler
Away Starter
ERA
2.08
WHIP
0.96
Record
8-5
IP
104.0
SO
123
GS
18
TB
Griffin Jax
Home Starter
ERA
3.45
WHIP
1.27
Record
4-5
IP
60.0
SO
58
GS
12
Top Offensive Performers
Sort by: