WNBA
Wednesday, July 22 at 03:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away
10-18 (6-9 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
89.7
—
85.4
Projected Total: 175.1 (O/U: 177.3)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
PHO: +115
|
LA: -140
LA
Los Angeles Sparks
Home
10-16 (5-8 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
61.3%
+14.8% Value Edge
Los Angeles Sparks Win Prob
38.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Phoenix Mercury to win outright in 61.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHO +2.4 / LA -2.4
PHO covers
(-110)
+14.4% Edge
66.8%
LA covers
(-110)
33.2%
Total
O/U: 177.3
OVER
(-110)
42.2%
UNDER
(-110)
+5.4% Edge
57.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 85.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • ๐ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LA holds an Offensive Rating of 100.8 vs PHO's Defensive Rating of 110.5.
- • ๐ Season Records: LA is 10-15 (Home: 5-7) vs PHO 9-18 (Away: 5-9).
- • ๐ฅ Momentum Factors: LA factor: 0.994 | PHO factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Phoenix Mercury winning outright in 61.3% of trials. Projected score: PHO 90 - LA 85.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
๐ Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 114.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 104.1
DRtg: 108.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 113.4
๐ฏ Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.0% / 42.5%
3-Point %
33.6% / 32.5%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 76.8%
โก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Phoenix Mercury
Los Angeles Sparks
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
W
vs Connecticut Sun
72 - 63
|
Jul 19, 2026
L
vs Connecticut Sun
83 - 96
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
100 - 104
|
Jul 13, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
58 - 106
|
Jul 11, 2026
L
vs Indiana Fever
89 - 92
|
Jul 09, 2026
Los Angeles Sparks
L
@ Dallas Wings
82 - 90
|
Jul 19, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
82 - 96
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
87 - 96
|
Jul 15, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
92 - 101
|
Jul 13, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
102 - 87
|
Jul 10, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Los Angeles Sparks defeated Phoenix Mercury
111 - 102
|
Jun 13, 2026
Away
Los Angeles Sparks defeated Phoenix Mercury
97 - 88
|
May 21, 2026