WNBA
Wednesday, July 22 at 03:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
22-6 (12-2 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
92.4
—
77.4
Projected Total: 169.8 (O/U: 178.7)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIN: -495
|
SEA: +365
SEA
Seattle Storm
Home
6-23 (4-10 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
84.8%
+1.6% Value Edge
Seattle Storm Win Prob
15.2%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 84.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN -10.5 / SEA +10.5
MIN covers
(-110)
+10.1% Edge
62.5%
SEA covers
(-110)
37.5%
Total
O/U: 178.7
OVER
(-110)
26.6%
UNDER
(-110)
+21.0% Edge
73.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 83.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: SEA holds an Offensive Rating of 100.3 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 94.1.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: SEA ratings adjusted (OffRating: -3.0, DefRating: +3.5) with Ezi Magbegor ruled OUT.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: MIN ratings adjusted (OffRating: -7.5, DefRating: +4.2) with Napheesa Collier ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: SEA is 6-22 (Home: 4-9) vs MIN 21-6 (Away: 11-2).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: SEA factor: 0.95 | MIN factor: 1.05 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 84.8% of trials. Projected score: MIN 92 - SEA 77.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 81.0
ORtg: 125.1
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 114.1
DRtg: 102.8
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 107.7
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 43.5%
3-Point %
38.0% / 28.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 78.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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Minnesota Lynx
Seattle Storm
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
W
@ Seattle Storm
105 - 102
|
Jul 20, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
101 - 93
|
Jul 18, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
96 - 87
|
Jul 15, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
104 - 100
|
Jul 13, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
90 - 85
|
Jul 11, 2026
Seattle Storm
L
vs Minnesota Lynx
102 - 105
|
Jul 20, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
107 - 110
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
90 - 95
|
Jul 15, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
79 - 84
|
Jul 12, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
78 - 89
|
Jul 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Minnesota Lynx defeated Seattle Storm
105 - 102
|
Jul 20, 2026
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Seattle Storm
88 - 68
|
Jun 06, 2026