Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees
- Spread
-
PIT +1.5 (-125)NYY -1.5 (+105)
- Total
-
Posted 9.0 (-115)Simulated 7.9
- Moneyline
-
PIT +155NYY -185
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Yankees to win outright in 62.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: PIT starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.032) and Slugging (+0.025).
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Hosted at NYY's stadium, which features high run and home-run factors favoring overall offensive projections.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Yankees winning outright in 62.9% of run trials, with a projected score of PIT 3.4 - NYY 4.4. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with PIT +1.5 covering in 55.0% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.0 which hit in 66.6% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **53.0%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Bubba Chandler (K%: 20.2%, BB%: 14.3%) faces NYY's top of the order (avg OBP: 33.9%). Home starter Max Fried (K%: 20.8%, BB%: 8.8%) matchups against PIT's first three hitters (avg OBP: 37.3%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+5.4%) at +110.