WNBA
Tuesday, July 28 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
7-21 (3-11 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
82.7
—
84.0
Projected Total: 166.7 (O/U: 159.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CON: +195
|
WSH: -245
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
15-12 (7-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
46.3%
+12.4% Value Edge
Washington Mystics Win Prob
53.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 53.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +6.2 / WSH -6.2
CON covers
(-110)
+11.7% Edge
64.1%
WSH covers
(-110)
35.9%
Total
O/U: 159.8
OVER
(-110)
+16.6% Edge
69.0%
UNDER
(-110)
31.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 75.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 107.0 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 106.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 14-12 (Home: 6-6) vs CON 7-20 (Away: 3-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.007 | CON factor: 0.993 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 53.7% of trials. Projected score: CON 83 - WSH 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 116.2
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 108.6
DRtg: 105.9
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 43.3%
3-Point %
32.7% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Indiana Fever
88 - 123
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Phoenix Mercury
63 - 72
|
Jul 19, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
96 - 83
|
Jul 17, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
90 - 87
|
Jul 14, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
64 - 79
|
Jul 10, 2026
Washington Mystics
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
100 - 99
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Golden State Valkyries
90 - 82
|
Jul 20, 2026
L
@ Golden State Valkyries
69 - 74
|
Jul 18, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
56 - 75
|
Jul 16, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
79 - 62
|
Jul 14, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Connecticut Sun defeated Washington Mystics
68 - 57
|
Jun 26, 2026
Away
Washington Mystics defeated Connecticut Sun
88 - 81
|
Jun 17, 2026