WNBA
Tuesday, July 28 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto Tempo
Away
10-17 (4-7 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
83.8
—
101.2
Projected Total: 185.0 (O/U: 187.4)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
TOR: +825
|
MIN: -1500
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Home
23-6 (11-4 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto Tempo Win Prob
11.2%
+0.4% Value Edge
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
88.8%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 88.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR +16.0 / MIN -16.0
TOR covers
(-110)
45.4%
MIN covers
(-110)
+2.2% Edge
54.6%
Total
O/U: 187.4
OVER
(-110)
42.7%
UNDER
(-110)
+4.9% Edge
57.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.8 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: MIN holds an Offensive Rating of 130.3 vs TOR's Defensive Rating of 116.7.
- • 📊 Season Records: MIN is 22-6 (Home: 10-4) vs TOR 10-16 (Away: 4-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: MIN factor: 1.05 | TOR factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 88.8% of trials. Projected score: TOR 84 - MIN 101.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.0
ORtg: 114.5
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 124.8
DRtg: 112.7
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.1
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.5% / 44.8%
3-Point %
34.0% / 38.0%
Free Throw %
79.0% / 78.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Toronto Tempo
Minnesota Lynx
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Toronto Tempo
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
83 - 109
|
Jul 20, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
92 - 111
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
vs Washington Mystics
62 - 79
|
Jul 14, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
93 - 91
|
Jul 12, 2026
L
vs Dallas Wings
95 - 108
|
Jul 10, 2026
Minnesota Lynx
W
@ Seattle Storm
86 - 76
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
105 - 102
|
Jul 20, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
101 - 93
|
Jul 18, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
96 - 87
|
Jul 15, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
104 - 100
|
Jul 13, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Minnesota Lynx defeated Toronto Tempo
100 - 72
|
May 21, 2026