WNBA
Wednesday, July 29 at 10:00 PM EDT
10,000 Sim Trials Run
GSV
Golden State Valkyries
Away
19-9
(8-5 Away)
Form
W
W
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
86.4
—
81.5
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home
11-18
(5-9 Home)
Form
L
L
L
W
W
- Spread
-
GSV -3.8 (-110)PHO +3.8 (-110)
- Total
-
Posted 156.7 (-110)Simulated 167.9
- Moneyline
-
GSV -175PHO +145
Simulated Outcome Probability
Golden State Valkyries
64.0%
Phoenix Mercury
36.0%
+0.4% edge at -175
No edge at +145
Our 10,000 iterations project the Golden State Valkyries to win outright in 64.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: GSV -3.8 / PHO +3.8
GSV covers
(-110)
+2.7% Edge
55.1%
PHO covers
(-110)
44.9%
Total
O/U: 156.7
OVER
(-110)
+25.9% Edge
78.3%
UNDER
(-110)
21.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: PHO holds an Offensive Rating of 109.2 vs GSV's Defensive Rating of 92.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: PHO is 10-18 (Home: 4-9) vs GSV 19-8 (Away: 8-4).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHO factor: 0.978 | GSV factor: 1.036 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Golden State Valkyries winning outright in 64.0% of trials. Projected score: GSV 86 - PHO 82.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 79.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 103.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 108.5
DRtg: 95.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.5
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.9% / 44.0%
3-Point %
34.5% / 33.6%
Free Throw %
79.2% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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Golden State Valkyries
Phoenix Mercury
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Golden State Valkyries
L
vs Washington Mystics
82 - 90
|
Jul 20, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
74 - 69
|
Jul 18, 2026
W
@ Indiana Fever
88 - 75
|
Jul 15, 2026
W
@ Connecticut Sun
79 - 64
|
Jul 10, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
83 - 75
|
Jul 08, 2026
Phoenix Mercury
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
86 - 82
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
72 - 63
|
Jul 19, 2026
L
vs Connecticut Sun
83 - 96
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
100 - 104
|
Jul 13, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
58 - 106
|
Jul 11, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Golden State Valkyries defeated Phoenix Mercury
87 - 81
|
Jun 09, 2026