WNBA
Thursday, July 30 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
7-21 (3-11 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
87.9
—
84.1
Projected Total: 172.0 (O/U: 173.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CON: +145
|
CHI: -175
CHI
Chicago Sky
Home
9-18 (5-7 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
60.7%
+19.9% Value Edge
Chicago Sky Win Prob
39.3%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Connecticut Sun to win outright in 60.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +4.4 / CHI -4.4
CON covers
(-115)
+18.2% Edge
71.7%
CHI covers
(-105)
28.3%
Total
O/U: 173.6
OVER
(-110)
44.9%
UNDER
(-105)
+3.9% Edge
55.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CHI holds an Offensive Rating of 114.7 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 106.7.
- • 📊 Season Records: CHI is 9-18 (Home: 5-7) vs CON 7-21 (Away: 3-11).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CHI factor: 0.993 | CON factor: 0.993 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Connecticut Sun winning outright in 60.7% of trials. Projected score: CON 88 - CHI 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.5
ORtg: 115.5
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 116.3
DRtg: 106.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 112.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 42.3%
3-Point %
32.7% / 31.2%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 77.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Chicago Sky
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Washington Mystics
84 - 92
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
88 - 123
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Phoenix Mercury
63 - 72
|
Jul 19, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
96 - 83
|
Jul 17, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
90 - 87
|
Jul 14, 2026
Chicago Sky
L
@ New York Liberty
94 - 95
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
91 - 93
|
Jul 19, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
96 - 82
|
Jul 17, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
95 - 90
|
Jul 15, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
91 - 96
|
Jul 12, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Connecticut Sun defeated Chicago Sky
92 - 63
|
Jun 22, 2026
Home
Chicago Sky defeated Connecticut Sun
85 - 80
|
Jun 05, 2026