WNBA Friday, July 31 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SEA

Seattle Storm

Away

6-24 (2-13 Away)

Last 5 Form
L L L L L
Projected Final Score
81.2 89.3
Projected Total: 170.5 (O/U: 170.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
SEA: +210 | ATL: -255
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Home

16-10 (9-4 Home)

Last 5 Form
W L W W W

Simulated Outcome Probability

Seattle Storm Win Prob
27.6%
No Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
72.4%
+0.6% Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 72.4% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: SEA -8.1 / ATL +8.1
SEA covers (-110) 11.7%
ATL covers (-110) +35.9% Edge 88.3%
Total O/U: 170.5
OVER (-110) 35.4%
UNDER (-110) +12.2% Edge 64.6%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 121.9 vs SEA's Defensive Rating of 113.0.
  • Injury Impact: SEA ratings adjusted (OffRating: -3.0, DefRating: +3.5) with Ezi Magbegor ruled OUT.
  • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 16-10 (Home: 9-4) vs SEA 6-24 (Away: 2-13).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.021 | SEA factor: 0.965 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 72.4% of trials. Projected score: SEA 81 - ATL 89.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 81.0 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 114.7 Offensive Rating ORtg: 121.2
DRtg: 109.2 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 108.3

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
43.5% / 40.9%
3-Point %
28.8% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
78.8% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Seattle Storm

Atlanta Dream

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Seattle Storm

L vs Indiana Fever
95 - 105 | Jul 28, 2026
L vs Minnesota Lynx
76 - 86 | Jul 22, 2026
L vs Minnesota Lynx
102 - 105 | Jul 20, 2026
L @ Indiana Fever
107 - 110 | Jul 17, 2026
L @ Chicago Sky
90 - 95 | Jul 15, 2026

Atlanta Dream

W vs Chicago Sky
93 - 91 | Jul 19, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
111 - 92 | Jul 17, 2026
W vs Los Angeles Sparks
101 - 92 | Jul 13, 2026
L vs Portland Fire
92 - 102 | Jul 11, 2026
W vs Seattle Storm
89 - 78 | Jul 09, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Atlanta Dream defeated Seattle Storm
89 - 78 | Jul 09, 2026
Home Seattle Storm defeated Atlanta Dream
105 - 90 | Jun 27, 2026

Injury Reports

Seattle Storm 3 reported

F Ezi Magbegor
Out
G Taina Mair
Out
C Dominique Malonga
Out

Atlanta Dream 2 reported

G Indya Nivar
Out
G Te-Hina Paopao
Out