WNBA
Friday, July 31 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SEA
Seattle Storm
Away
6-24 (2-13 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
81.2
—
89.3
Projected Total: 170.5 (O/U: 170.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
SEA: +210
|
ATL: -255
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
16-10 (9-4 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Seattle Storm Win Prob
27.6%
No Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
72.4%
+0.6% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 72.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SEA -8.1 / ATL +8.1
SEA covers
(-110)
11.7%
ATL covers
(-110)
+35.9% Edge
88.3%
Total
O/U: 170.5
OVER
(-110)
35.4%
UNDER
(-110)
+12.2% Edge
64.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 121.9 vs SEA's Defensive Rating of 113.0.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: SEA ratings adjusted (OffRating: -3.0, DefRating: +3.5) with Ezi Magbegor ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 16-10 (Home: 9-4) vs SEA 6-24 (Away: 2-13).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.021 | SEA factor: 0.965 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 72.4% of trials. Projected score: SEA 81 - ATL 89.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 81.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 114.7
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 121.2
DRtg: 109.2
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
43.5% / 40.9%
3-Point %
28.8% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
78.8% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Seattle Storm
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Seattle Storm
L
vs Indiana Fever
95 - 105
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Lynx
76 - 86
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Lynx
102 - 105
|
Jul 20, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
107 - 110
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
90 - 95
|
Jul 15, 2026
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Chicago Sky
93 - 91
|
Jul 19, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
111 - 92
|
Jul 17, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
101 - 92
|
Jul 13, 2026
L
vs Portland Fire
92 - 102
|
Jul 11, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
89 - 78
|
Jul 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Seattle Storm
89 - 78
|
Jul 09, 2026
Home
Seattle Storm defeated Atlanta Dream
105 - 90
|
Jun 27, 2026