WNBA
Saturday, August 01 at 03:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
16-13 (8-8 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
92.2
—
88.6
Projected Total: 180.8 (O/U: 177.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: -150
|
PHO: +125
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Home
11-18 (5-9 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty Win Prob
60.5%
+0.5% Value Edge
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
39.5%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 60.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY -2.5 / PHO +2.5
NY covers
(-115)
+1.0% Edge
54.5%
PHO covers
(-105)
45.5%
Total
O/U: 177.0
OVER
(-110)
+7.1% Edge
59.5%
UNDER
(-110)
40.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 79.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: PHO holds an Offensive Rating of 113.9 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 105.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: PHO is 11-18 (Home: 5-9) vs NY 16-13 (Away: 8-8).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: PHO factor: 0.992 | NY factor: 1.022 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 60.5% of trials. Projected score: NY 92 - PHO 89.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.5
ORtg: 112.9
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 115.8
DRtg: 107.9
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.0
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.0%
3-Point %
34.9% / 33.6%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Phoenix Mercury
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
99 - 104
|
Jul 30, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
113 - 109
|
Jul 28, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
95 - 94
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Dallas Wings
99 - 98
|
Jul 20, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
88 - 108
|
Jul 18, 2026
Phoenix Mercury
W
vs Golden State Valkyries
91 - 89
|
Jul 29, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
86 - 82
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
72 - 63
|
Jul 19, 2026
L
vs Connecticut Sun
83 - 96
|
Jul 17, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
100 - 104
|
Jul 13, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
New York Liberty defeated Phoenix Mercury
75 - 68
|
May 29, 2026
Home
New York Liberty defeated Phoenix Mercury
84 - 74
|
May 27, 2026