MLB
Wednesday, July 08 at 03:45 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
Away
42-48 (18-23 Away)
Projected Final Score
3.2
—
3.1
Projected Total: 6.3 (O/U: 6.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
TOR: -115
|
SF: -105
SF
San Francisco Giants
Home
37-52 (18-22 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto Blue Jays Win Prob
48.8%
No Value Edge
San Francisco Giants Win Prob
51.2%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the San Francisco Giants to win outright in 51.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR -1.5 / SF +1.5
TOR covers
(-110)
33.6%
SF covers
(-110)
+14.0% Edge
66.4%
Total
O/U: 6.0
OVER
(-105)
46.1%
UNDER
(-115)
+0.4% Edge
53.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: SF starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.050).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: TOR relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the SF bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at SF's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the San Francisco Giants winning outright in 51.2% of run trials, with a projected score of TOR 3.2 - SF 3.1. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with SF +1.5 covering in 66.4% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 6.0 which hit in 53.9% of runs.
Starting Pitchers Matchup
TOR
Dylan Cease
Away Starter
ERA
2.79
WHIP
1.18
Record
5-4
IP
90.1
SO
137
GS
16
SF
Logan Webb
Home Starter
ERA
3.66
WHIP
1.17
Record
5-6
IP
93.1
SO
78
GS
15
Top Offensive Performers
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