MLB
Wednesday, July 08 at 03:45 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
TOR
Toronto Blue Jays
Away
43-49 (19-24 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
3.1
—
3.0
Projected Total: 6.1 (O/U: 7.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
TOR: -125
|
SF: +105
SF
San Francisco Giants
Home
38-53 (19-23 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Toronto Blue Jays Win Prob
48.0%
No Value Edge
San Francisco Giants Win Prob
52.0%
+3.2% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the San Francisco Giants to win outright in 52.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: TOR -1.5 / SF +1.5
TOR covers
(+140)
32.8%
SF covers
(-165)
+4.9% Edge
67.2%
Total
O/U: 7.0
OVER
(-115)
31.6%
UNDER
(-100)
+18.4% Edge
68.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: SF starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in Slugging (+0.067).
- • 🐂 Bullpen Advantage: TOR relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the SF bullpen.
- • 🏟️ Ballpark Factor: Played at SF's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the San Francisco Giants winning outright in 52.0% of run trials, with a projected score of TOR 3.0 - SF 3.0. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with SF +1.5 covering in 67.2% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 7.0 which hit in 68.4% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
Simulated NRFI Probability
N/A
No Value Edge
Vegas Consensus NRFI Odds
N/A
Implied Probability: N/A
VegasSims Recommendation
NO ACTION
Insufficient Edge
Starting Pitchers Matchup
TOR
Dylan Cease
Away Starter
ERA
2.37
WHIP
1.06
Record
8-5
IP
144.1
SO
209
GS
24
SF
Logan Webb
Home Starter
ERA
3.75
WHIP
1.11
Record
8-8
IP
141.2
SO
112
GS
23
Top Offensive Performers
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Toronto Blue Jays
San Francisco Giants
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Toronto Blue Jays
W
@ San Francisco Giants
9 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
L
@ San Francisco Giants
1 - 10
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ Seattle Mariners
0 - 4
|
Jul 05, 2026
L
@ Seattle Mariners
0 - 11
|
Jul 04, 2026
W
@ Seattle Mariners
2 - 0
|
Jul 03, 2026
San Francisco Giants
L
vs Toronto Blue Jays
3 - 9
|
Jul 07, 2026
W
vs Toronto Blue Jays
10 - 1
|
Jul 06, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rockies
6 - 7
|
Jul 05, 2026
W
@ Colorado Rockies
6 - 4
|
Jul 04, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rockies
3 - 15
|
Jul 03, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Toronto Blue Jays defeated San Francisco Giants
9 - 3
|
Jul 07, 2026
Home
San Francisco Giants defeated Toronto Blue Jays
10 - 1
|
Jul 06, 2026