WNBA Monday, August 03 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV

Las Vegas Aces

Away

20-8 (11-3 Away)

Last 5 Form
L W L W W
Projected Final Score
93.0 84.6
Projected Total: 177.6 (O/U: 177.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LV: -375 | ATL: +300
ATL

Atlanta Dream

Home

18-10 (10-4 Home)

Last 5 Form
W W W W W

Simulated Outcome Probability

Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
73.0%
No Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
27.0%
+2.0% Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 73.0% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: LV +8.4 / ATL -8.4
LV covers (-110) +37.8% Edge 90.2%
ATL covers (-110) 9.8%
Total O/U: 177.6
OVER (-110) 38.5%
UNDER (-110) +9.1% Edge 61.5%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 119.2 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 100.8.
  • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 18-10 (Home: 10-4) vs LV 20-8 (Away: 11-3).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.02 | LV factor: 1.022 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 73.0% of trials. Projected score: LV 93 - ATL 85.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 80.2 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 126.0 Offensive Rating ORtg: 119.4
DRtg: 103.1 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 107.7

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
45.4% / 40.9%
3-Point %
35.0% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Las Vegas Aces

Atlanta Dream

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Las Vegas Aces

W vs New York Liberty
104 - 99 | Jul 30, 2026
W vs Portland Fire
98 - 83 | Jul 28, 2026
L @ Washington Mystics
99 - 100 | Jul 22, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
109 - 83 | Jul 20, 2026
L vs Indiana Fever
75 - 109 | Jul 12, 2026

Atlanta Dream

W vs Seattle Storm
98 - 89 | Jul 31, 2026
W @ Dallas Wings
82 - 81 | Jul 29, 2026
W vs Chicago Sky
93 - 91 | Jul 19, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
111 - 92 | Jul 17, 2026
W vs Los Angeles Sparks
101 - 92 | Jul 13, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Away Las Vegas Aces defeated Atlanta Dream
85 - 84 | May 17, 2026

Injury Reports

Las Vegas Aces 2 reported

F Janiah Barker
Out
F Cheyenne Parker-Tyus
Out

Atlanta Dream 2 reported

G Indya Nivar
Out
G Te-Hina Paopao
Out