MLS
Saturday, August 01 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NE
New England Revolution
Away
9-3-5 ( Away)
Projected Final Score
1.35
—
1.73
Projected Total: 3.1 (O/U: 3.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NE: +195
|
MTL: +125
MTL
CF Montréal
Home
4-4-10 ( Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
New England Revolution Win
29.3%
Draw / Tie
25.0%
CF Montréal Win
45.7%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New England Revolution Win: 29.3%, Draw: 25.0%, and CF Montréal Win: 45.7%.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NE -0.4 / MTL +0.4
NE covers
(-110)
+1.9% Edge
54.3%
MTL covers
(-110)
45.7%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
+7.2% Edge
59.6%
UNDER
(-110)
40.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: MTL projected match xG: 1.7 | NE projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: MTL Win: 45.7% | Draw: 25.0% | NE Win: 29.3%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.4% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.3%), 2-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (7.7%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: MTL record: 4-4-10 (Home: ) vs NE record: 9-3-5 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **MTL Moneyline** (45.7% simulated win probability vs 25.0% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NE N/A** (54.3% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (59.6% cover probability, projected total: 3.08). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.4% expected probability).