MLS
Saturday, August 01 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NSH
Nashville SC
Away
12-4-2 ( Away)
Projected Final Score
1.34
—
1.71
Projected Total: 3.1 (O/U: 3.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NSH: +205
|
DC: +120
DC
D.C. United
Home
5-8-5 ( Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Nashville SC Win
29.1%
Draw / Tie
26.1%
D.C. United Win
44.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Nashville SC Win: 29.1%, Draw: 26.1%, and D.C. United Win: 44.8%.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NSH -0.4 / DC +0.4
NSH covers
(-110)
+2.8% Edge
55.2%
DC covers
(-110)
44.8%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
+6.7% Edge
59.1%
UNDER
(-110)
40.9%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: DC projected match xG: 1.7 | NSH projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: DC Win: 44.8% | Draw: 26.1% | NSH Win: 29.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: DC record: 5-8-5 (Home: ) vs NSH record: 12-4-2 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **DC Moneyline** (44.8% simulated win probability vs 26.1% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **NSH N/A** (55.2% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (59.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.05). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.0% expected probability).