WNBA
Wednesday, August 05 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away
12-20 (7-10 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
87.7
—
88.9
Projected Total: 176.6 (O/U: 183.4)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
PHO: +205
|
ATL: -255
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Home
19-11 (11-5 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
46.3%
+13.5% Value Edge
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
53.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 53.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHO +6.7 / ATL -6.7
PHO covers
(-110)
+11.6% Edge
64.0%
ATL covers
(-110)
36.0%
Total
O/U: 183.4
OVER
(-110)
31.2%
UNDER
(-110)
+16.4% Edge
68.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: ATL holds an Offensive Rating of 123.0 vs PHO's Defensive Rating of 107.1.
- • 📊 Season Records: ATL is 18-11 (Home: 10-5) vs PHO 12-19 (Away: 7-9).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.036 | PHO factor: 1.006 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 53.7% of trials. Projected score: PHO 88 - ATL 89.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.2
ORtg: 114.0
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 119.8
DRtg: 107.8
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 108.1
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.0% / 40.9%
3-Point %
33.6% / 30.8%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Phoenix Mercury
Atlanta Dream
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
W
@ Chicago Sky
106 - 101
|
Aug 03, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
92 - 94
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Golden State Valkyries
91 - 89
|
Jul 29, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
86 - 82
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
72 - 63
|
Jul 19, 2026
Atlanta Dream
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
87 - 109
|
Aug 03, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 89
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
@ Dallas Wings
82 - 81
|
Jul 29, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
93 - 91
|
Jul 19, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
111 - 92
|
Jul 17, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Phoenix Mercury
82 - 80
|
May 24, 2026