WNBA
Thursday, August 06 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Away
22-9 (13-4 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
94.2
—
96.2
Projected Total: 190.4 (O/U: 193.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LV: -105
|
IND: -115
IND
Indiana Fever
Home
19-12 (11-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
44.9%
No Value Edge
Indiana Fever Win Prob
55.1%
+1.6% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 55.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LV +0.8 / IND -0.8
LV covers
(-110)
44.9%
IND covers
(-110)
+2.7% Edge
55.1%
Total
O/U: 193.1
OVER
(-110)
40.2%
UNDER
(-110)
+7.4% Edge
59.8%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 131.6 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 105.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: IND is 19-11 (Home: 11-5) vs LV 21-9 (Away: 12-4).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 1.036 | LV factor: 0.992 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 55.1% of trials. Projected score: LV 94 - IND 96.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 127.4
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 126.2
DRtg: 104.1
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 113.1
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.4% / 45.3%
3-Point %
35.0% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Las Vegas Aces
Indiana Fever
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Las Vegas Aces
W
@ Atlanta Dream
109 - 87
|
Aug 03, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
83 - 84
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
104 - 99
|
Jul 30, 2026
W
vs Portland Fire
98 - 83
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
99 - 100
|
Jul 22, 2026
Indiana Fever
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
100 - 108
|
Aug 02, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
112 - 98
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
105 - 95
|
Jul 28, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
123 - 88
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
108 - 88
|
Jul 18, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75
|
Jul 12, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
84 - 68
|
Jul 05, 2026