WNBA Thursday, August 06 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV

Las Vegas Aces

Away

22-9 (13-4 Away)

Last 5 Form
L W W L W
Projected Final Score
94.2 96.2
Projected Total: 190.4 (O/U: 193.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LV: -105 | IND: -115
IND

Indiana Fever

Home

19-12 (11-6 Home)

Last 5 Form
W W W W L

Simulated Outcome Probability

Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
44.9%
No Value Edge
Indiana Fever Win Prob
55.1%
+1.6% Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 55.1% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: LV +0.8 / IND -0.8
LV covers (-110) 44.9%
IND covers (-110) +2.7% Edge 55.1%
Total O/U: 193.1
OVER (-110) 40.2%
UNDER (-110) +7.4% Edge 59.8%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 131.6 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 105.0.
  • 📊 Season Records: IND is 19-11 (Home: 11-5) vs LV 21-9 (Away: 12-4).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 1.036 | LV factor: 0.992 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 55.1% of trials. Projected score: LV 94 - IND 96.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 80.2 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 127.4 Offensive Rating ORtg: 126.2
DRtg: 104.1 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 113.1

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
45.4% / 45.3%
3-Point %
35.0% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Las Vegas Aces

Indiana Fever

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Las Vegas Aces

W @ Atlanta Dream
109 - 87 | Aug 03, 2026
L @ Chicago Sky
83 - 84 | Aug 01, 2026
W vs New York Liberty
104 - 99 | Jul 30, 2026
W vs Portland Fire
98 - 83 | Jul 28, 2026
L @ Washington Mystics
99 - 100 | Jul 22, 2026

Indiana Fever

L @ Minnesota Lynx
100 - 108 | Aug 02, 2026
W @ Portland Fire
112 - 98 | Jul 31, 2026
W @ Seattle Storm
105 - 95 | Jul 28, 2026
W vs Connecticut Sun
123 - 88 | Jul 22, 2026
W vs New York Liberty
108 - 88 | Jul 18, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Away Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
109 - 75 | Jul 12, 2026
Away Indiana Fever defeated Las Vegas Aces
84 - 68 | Jul 05, 2026

Injury Reports

Las Vegas Aces 2 reported

G Dana Evans
Out
F NaLyssa Smith
Out

Indiana Fever 1 reported

C Aliyah Boston
Out