WNBA
Friday, August 07 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away
12-21 (7-11 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
88.3
—
86.8
Projected Total: 175.1 (O/U: 173.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
PHO: -220
|
CON: +185
CON
Connecticut Sun
Home
8-23 (5-10 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
54.4%
No Value Edge
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
45.6%
+10.5% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Phoenix Mercury to win outright in 54.4% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHO -5.5 / CON +5.5
PHO covers
(-110)
39.2%
CON covers
(-110)
+8.4% Edge
60.8%
Total
O/U: 173.5
OVER
(-110)
+0.6% Edge
53.0%
UNDER
(-110)
47.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CON holds an Offensive Rating of 111.0 vs PHO's Defensive Rating of 108.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: CON is 7-23 (Home: 4-10) vs PHO 12-20 (Away: 7-10).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CON factor: 0.965 | PHO factor: 1.007 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Phoenix Mercury winning outright in 54.4% of trials. Projected score: PHO 88 - CON 87.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 76.5
ORtg: 114.2
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 115.9
DRtg: 108.9
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 105.1
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.0% / 44.1%
3-Point %
33.6% / 32.7%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 81.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Phoenix Mercury
Connecticut Sun
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
L
@ Atlanta Dream
82 - 96
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
@ Chicago Sky
106 - 101
|
Aug 03, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
92 - 94
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Golden State Valkyries
91 - 89
|
Jul 29, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
86 - 82
|
Jul 22, 2026
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Dallas Wings
63 - 83
|
Aug 02, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
88 - 94
|
Jul 30, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
84 - 92
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
88 - 123
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
@ Phoenix Mercury
63 - 72
|
Jul 19, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Phoenix Mercury defeated Connecticut Sun
72 - 63
|
Jul 19, 2026
Away
Connecticut Sun defeated Phoenix Mercury
96 - 83
|
Jul 17, 2026