WNBA
Friday, August 07 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Away
19-12 (8-7 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
81.8
—
86.5
Projected Total: 168.3 (O/U: 170.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
ATL: -220
|
WSH: +180
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
18-12 (10-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
37.3%
No Value Edge
Washington Mystics Win Prob
62.7%
+27.0% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 62.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL -5.7 / WSH +5.7
ATL covers
(-110)
23.8%
WSH covers
(-110)
+23.8% Edge
76.2%
Total
O/U: 170.5
OVER
(-110)
42.8%
UNDER
(-110)
+4.8% Edge
57.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 111.8 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 105.6.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 17-12 (Home: 9-6) vs ATL 19-11 (Away: 8-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.035 | ATL factor: 1.021 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 62.7% of trials. Projected score: ATL 82 - WSH 87.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 117.1
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 110.1
DRtg: 108.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
40.9% / 43.3%
3-Point %
30.8% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Atlanta Dream
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
96 - 82
|
Aug 05, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
87 - 109
|
Aug 03, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 89
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
@ Dallas Wings
82 - 81
|
Jul 29, 2026
W
vs Chicago Sky
93 - 91
|
Jul 19, 2026
Washington Mystics
W
vs Dallas Wings
96 - 92
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
81 - 75
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
92 - 84
|
Jul 28, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
100 - 99
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
@ Golden State Valkyries
90 - 82
|
Jul 20, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Atlanta Dream
81 - 76
|
Jul 02, 2026
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Washington Mystics
109 - 77
|
Jun 06, 2026
Injury Reports
Atlanta Dream 3 reported
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.