MLB
Wednesday, July 08 at 06:35 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CHC
Chicago Cubs
Away
50-40 (23-21 Away)
Projected Final Score
4.7
—
4.8
Projected Total: 9.5 (O/U: 9.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CHC: -100
|
BAL: -120
BAL
Baltimore Orioles
Home
42-49 (24-23 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Chicago Cubs Win Prob
47.2%
No Value Edge
Baltimore Orioles Win Prob
52.8%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Baltimore Orioles to win outright in 52.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CHC +1.5 / BAL -1.5
CHC covers
(-105)
+11.6% Edge
62.8%
BAL covers
(-115)
37.2%
Total
O/U: 9.5
OVER
(-110)
44.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+2.7% Edge
55.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đȘ Lineup Depth: CHC starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.019).
- • đ Bullpen Advantage: BAL relievers offer higher strikeout capacity and yield fewer home runs per batter faced compared to the CHC bullpen.
- • đ„ Momentum Streak: CHC enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 73%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Baltimore Orioles winning outright in 52.8% of run trials, with a projected score of CHC 4.7 - BAL 4.8. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with CHC +1.5 covering in 62.8% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.5 which hit in 55.1% of runs.
Starting Pitchers Matchup
CHC
Colin Rea
Away Starter
ERA
4.74
WHIP
1.43
Record
6-5
IP
89.1
SO
68
GS
14
BAL
Dean Kremer
Home Starter
âčïž Blended Model
ERA
3.18
WHIP
0.88
Record
1-1
IP
17.0
SO
20
GS
3
Top Offensive Performers
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