WNBA
Sunday, August 09 at 12:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Away
22-11 (13-6 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
W
L
Projected Final Score
92.6
—
90.2
Projected Total: 182.8 (O/U: 178.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LV: +295
|
NY: -380
NY
New York Liberty
Home
20-13 (11-5 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
56.8%
+31.5% Value Edge
New York Liberty Win Prob
43.2%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 56.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LV +9.2 / NY -9.2
LV covers
(-110)
+27.6% Edge
80.0%
NY covers
(-110)
20.0%
Total
O/U: 178.6
OVER
(-110)
+8.5% Edge
60.9%
UNDER
(-110)
39.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 114.6 vs LV's Defensive Rating of 104.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: NY is 19-13 (Home: 10-5) vs LV 22-10 (Away: 13-5).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NY factor: 1.026 | LV factor: 1.002 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 56.8% of trials. Projected score: LV 93 - NY 90.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 127.0
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 114.1
DRtg: 104.9
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 107.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.4% / 46.2%
3-Point %
35.0% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 82.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Las Vegas Aces
New York Liberty
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Las Vegas Aces
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
87 - 98
|
Aug 08, 2026
W
@ Indiana Fever
86 - 84
|
Aug 06, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
109 - 87
|
Aug 03, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
83 - 84
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
104 - 99
|
Jul 30, 2026
New York Liberty
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 86
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
95 - 83
|
Aug 03, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
94 - 92
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
99 - 104
|
Jul 30, 2026
W
@ Los Angeles Sparks
113 - 109
|
Jul 28, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Las Vegas Aces defeated New York Liberty
104 - 99
|
Jul 30, 2026
Home
New York Liberty defeated Las Vegas Aces
93 - 85
|
Jun 30, 2026
Away
New York Liberty defeated Las Vegas Aces
87 - 76
|
Jun 23, 2026