WNBA
Sunday, August 09 at 03:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
PHO
Phoenix Mercury
Away
12-22 (7-12 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
82.7
—
89.8
Projected Total: 172.5 (O/U: 167.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
PHO: +105
|
WSH: -130
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
19-12 (11-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Phoenix Mercury Win Prob
30.5%
No Value Edge
Washington Mystics Win Prob
69.5%
+13.0% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 69.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: PHO +1.7 / WSH -1.7
PHO covers
(-110)
33.1%
WSH covers
(-110)
+14.5% Edge
66.9%
Total
O/U: 167.5
OVER
(-110)
+10.5% Edge
62.9%
UNDER
(-110)
37.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.0 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 114.3 vs PHO's Defensive Rating of 109.5.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 18-12 (Home: 10-6) vs PHO 12-21 (Away: 7-11).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.05 | PHO factor: 0.99 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 69.5% of trials. Projected score: PHO 83 - WSH 90.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 112.5
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 111.1
DRtg: 108.5
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 102.0
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.0% / 43.3%
3-Point %
33.6% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
81.5% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Phoenix Mercury
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Phoenix Mercury
L
@ Connecticut Sun
72 - 75
|
Aug 07, 2026
L
@ Atlanta Dream
82 - 96
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
@ Chicago Sky
106 - 101
|
Aug 03, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
92 - 94
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Golden State Valkyries
91 - 89
|
Jul 29, 2026
Washington Mystics
W
vs Atlanta Dream
79 - 74
|
Aug 07, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
96 - 92
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
81 - 75
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
92 - 84
|
Jul 28, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
100 - 99
|
Jul 22, 2026
Injury Reports
Phoenix Mercury 4 reported
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.