WNBA
Tuesday, August 11 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
20-14 (9-9 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
93.3
—
95.7
Projected Total: 189.0 (O/U: 191.0)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: +120
|
IND: -145
IND
Indiana Fever
Home
21-12 (12-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty Win Prob
43.1%
No Value Edge
Indiana Fever Win Prob
56.9%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 56.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY +2.7 / IND -2.7
NY covers
(-110)
49.3%
IND covers
(-110)
50.7%
Total
O/U: 191.0
OVER
(-110)
43.8%
UNDER
(-110)
+3.8% Edge
56.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 131.3 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 104.2.
- • 📊 Season Records: IND is 20-12 (Home: 11-6) vs NY 20-13 (Away: 9-8).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 1.007 | NY factor: 1.021 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 56.9% of trials. Projected score: NY 93 - IND 96.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 114.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 128.7
DRtg: 106.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 112.2
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 45.3%
3-Point %
34.9% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Indiana Fever
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
111 - 71
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 86
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
95 - 83
|
Aug 03, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
94 - 92
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
99 - 104
|
Jul 30, 2026
Indiana Fever
W
@ Chicago Sky
90 - 86
|
Aug 08, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
84 - 86
|
Aug 06, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
100 - 108
|
Aug 02, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
112 - 98
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
@ Seattle Storm
105 - 95
|
Jul 28, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Indiana Fever defeated New York Liberty
108 - 88
|
Jul 18, 2026
Home
New York Liberty defeated Indiana Fever
83 - 75
|
Jun 06, 2026