WNBA
Tuesday, August 11 at 10:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
WSH
Washington Mystics
Away
19-13 (8-7 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
88.4
—
88.1
Projected Total: 176.5 (O/U: 170.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
WSH: +225
|
LV: -280
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Home
23-11 (10-5 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Washington Mystics Win Prob
50.9%
+20.1% Value Edge
Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
49.1%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Washington Mystics to win outright in 50.9% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: WSH +6.5 / LV -6.5
WSH covers
(-110)
+16.2% Edge
68.6%
LV covers
(-110)
31.5%
Total
O/U: 170.6
OVER
(-110)
+13.1% Edge
65.5%
UNDER
(-110)
34.5%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.5 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LV holds an Offensive Rating of 118.5 vs WSH's Defensive Rating of 97.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: LV is 22-11 (Home: 9-5) vs WSH 19-12 (Away: 8-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: LV factor: 0.978 | WSH factor: 1.05 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Washington Mystics winning outright in 50.9% of trials. Projected score: WSH 88 - LV 88.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.6
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.2
ORtg: 110.2
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 124.2
DRtg: 102.2
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 105.4
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
43.3% / 45.4%
3-Point %
36.8% / 35.0%
Free Throw %
76.2% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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Washington Mystics
Las Vegas Aces
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Washington Mystics
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
95 - 75
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Dream
79 - 74
|
Aug 07, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
96 - 92
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
81 - 75
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
vs Connecticut Sun
92 - 84
|
Jul 28, 2026
Las Vegas Aces
L
@ New York Liberty
71 - 111
|
Aug 09, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
87 - 98
|
Aug 08, 2026
W
@ Indiana Fever
86 - 84
|
Aug 06, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
109 - 87
|
Aug 03, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
83 - 84
|
Aug 01, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Washington Mystics defeated Las Vegas Aces
100 - 99
|
Jul 22, 2026
Injury Reports
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.