WNBA
Thursday, August 13 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
ATL
Atlanta Dream
Away
21-12 (9-7 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
85.7
—
84.7
Projected Total: 170.4 (O/U: 173.4)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
ATL: -495
|
CON: +370
CON
Connecticut Sun
Home
8-24 (5-11 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Atlanta Dream Win Prob
52.6%
No Value Edge
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
47.4%
+26.1% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Atlanta Dream to win outright in 52.6% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: ATL -10.0 / CON +10.0
ATL covers
(-110)
25.3%
CON covers
(-110)
+22.3% Edge
74.7%
Total
O/U: 173.4
OVER
(-110)
40.8%
UNDER
(-110)
+6.8% Edge
59.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CON holds an Offensive Rating of 110.1 vs ATL's Defensive Rating of 106.0.
- • 📊 Season Records: CON is 8-23 (Home: 5-10) vs ATL 20-12 (Away: 8-7).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CON factor: 0.964 | ATL factor: 1.022 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Atlanta Dream winning outright in 52.6% of trials. Projected score: ATL 86 - CON 85.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.2
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 76.5
ORtg: 119.0
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 115.2
DRtg: 108.3
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 104.5
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
40.9% / 44.1%
3-Point %
30.8% / 32.7%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 81.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Atlanta Dream
Connecticut Sun
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Atlanta Dream
W
vs Toronto Tempo
107 - 95
|
Aug 10, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
74 - 79
|
Aug 07, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
96 - 82
|
Aug 05, 2026
L
vs Las Vegas Aces
87 - 109
|
Aug 03, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
98 - 89
|
Jul 31, 2026
Connecticut Sun
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
75 - 72
|
Aug 07, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
63 - 83
|
Aug 02, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
88 - 94
|
Jul 30, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
84 - 92
|
Jul 28, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
88 - 123
|
Jul 22, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Atlanta Dream defeated Connecticut Sun
91 - 75
|
Jun 02, 2026