WNBA
Thursday, August 13 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LA
Los Angeles Sparks
Away
12-21 (7-10 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
L
Projected Final Score
84.1
—
97.7
Projected Total: 181.8 (O/U: 186.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LA: +285
|
NY: -365
NY
New York Liberty
Home
21-14 (12-5 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Los Angeles Sparks Win Prob
16.9%
No Value Edge
New York Liberty Win Prob
83.1%
+4.6% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 83.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LA +8.5 / NY -8.5
LA covers
(-110)
35.7%
NY covers
(-110)
+11.9% Edge
64.3%
Total
O/U: 186.8
OVER
(-110)
36.6%
UNDER
(-110)
+11.0% Edge
63.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 80.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • ๐ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 120.4 vs LA's Defensive Rating of 114.0.
- • ๐ Season Records: NY is 20-14 (Home: 11-5) vs LA 12-20 (Away: 7-9).
- • ๐ฅ Momentum Factors: NY factor: 1.021 | LA factor: 0.993 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 83.1% of trials. Projected score: LA 84 - NY 98.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
๐ Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 104.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 116.1
DRtg: 113.3
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 107.3
๐ฏ Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
42.5% / 46.2%
3-Point %
32.5% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
76.8% / 82.2%
โก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Los Angeles Sparks
New York Liberty
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Los Angeles Sparks
L
vs Phoenix Mercury
87 - 94
|
Aug 11, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
78 - 84
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
89 - 82
|
Aug 06, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
88 - 95
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
106 - 101
|
Aug 02, 2026
New York Liberty
L
@ Indiana Fever
92 - 106
|
Aug 11, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
111 - 71
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 86
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
95 - 83
|
Aug 03, 2026
W
@ Phoenix Mercury
94 - 92
|
Aug 01, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
New York Liberty defeated Los Angeles Sparks
113 - 109
|
Jul 28, 2026
Home
Los Angeles Sparks defeated New York Liberty
98 - 97
|
Jun 21, 2026