St. Louis Cardinals
Away
61-61 (29-27 Away)
Chicago Cubs
Home
72-51 (36-24 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Chicago Cubs to win outright in 73.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 💪 Lineup Depth: CHC starting lineup holds a clear offensive edge in On-Base Percentage (+0.062) and Slugging (+0.070).
- • 🔥 Momentum Streak: CHC enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 82%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Chicago Cubs winning outright in 73.1% of run trials, with a projected score of STL 2.9 - CHC 5.0. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with CHC -1.5 covering in 54.6% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 9.0 which hit in 66.4% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **55.2%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Michael McGreevy (K%: 16.6%, BB%: 6.2%) faces CHC's top of the order (avg OBP: 36.5%). Home starter Matthew Boyd (K%: 20.1%, BB%: 8.5%) matchups against STL's first three hitters (avg OBP: 35.0%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+4.0%) at -105.