WNBA
Saturday, August 15 at 01:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NY
New York Liberty
Away
22-14 (10-9 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
L
W
Projected Final Score
91.0
—
83.5
Projected Total: 174.5 (O/U: 171.2)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NY: -385
|
CON: +300
CON
Connecticut Sun
Home
8-25 (5-12 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York Liberty Win Prob
70.1%
No Value Edge
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
29.9%
+4.9% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the New York Liberty to win outright in 70.1% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NY -8.5 / CON +8.5
NY covers
(-110)
48.0%
CON covers
(-110)
52.0%
Total
O/U: 171.2
OVER
(-110)
+5.6% Edge
58.0%
UNDER
(-110)
42.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CON holds an Offensive Rating of 108.9 vs NY's Defensive Rating of 103.8.
- • 📊 Season Records: CON is 8-24 (Home: 5-11) vs NY 21-14 (Away: 9-9).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CON factor: 0.964 | NY factor: 1.036 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the New York Liberty winning outright in 70.1% of trials. Projected score: NY 91 - CON 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 76.5
ORtg: 115.4
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 114.1
DRtg: 107.5
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 104.7
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
46.2% / 44.1%
3-Point %
34.9% / 32.7%
Free Throw %
82.2% / 81.0%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
New York Liberty
Connecticut Sun
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York Liberty
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 81
|
Aug 13, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
92 - 106
|
Aug 11, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
111 - 71
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
92 - 86
|
Aug 05, 2026
W
vs Seattle Storm
95 - 83
|
Aug 03, 2026
Connecticut Sun
L
vs Atlanta Dream
69 - 104
|
Aug 13, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
75 - 72
|
Aug 07, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
63 - 83
|
Aug 02, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
88 - 94
|
Jul 30, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
84 - 92
|
Jul 28, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
New York Liberty defeated Connecticut Sun
89 - 80
|
Jun 08, 2026