WNBA
Tuesday, August 18 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
LA
Los Angeles Sparks
Away
12-23 (7-12 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
L
Projected Final Score
81.1
—
90.6
Projected Total: 171.7 (O/U: 170.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
LA: -145
|
CON: +120
CON
Connecticut Sun
Home
9-25 (6-12 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Los Angeles Sparks Win Prob
25.2%
No Value Edge
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
74.8%
+29.3% Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Connecticut Sun to win outright in 74.8% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: LA -2.5 / CON +2.5
LA covers
(-110)
20.5%
CON covers
(-110)
+27.1% Edge
79.5%
Total
O/U: 170.5
OVER
(-110)
+0.4% Edge
52.8%
UNDER
(-110)
47.3%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 78.1 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • ๐ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: CON holds an Offensive Rating of 114.4 vs LA's Defensive Rating of 116.3.
- • ๐ Season Records: CON is 8-25 (Home: 5-12) vs LA 12-22 (Away: 7-11).
- • ๐ฅ Momentum Factors: CON factor: 0.994 | LA factor: 0.964 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Connecticut Sun winning outright in 74.8% of trials. Projected score: LA 81 - CON 91.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
๐ Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.8
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 76.5
ORtg: 104.6
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 114.6
DRtg: 112.3
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 105.3
๐ฏ Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
42.5% / 44.1%
3-Point %
32.5% / 32.7%
Free Throw %
76.8% / 81.0%
โก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Los Angeles Sparks
Connecticut Sun
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Los Angeles Sparks
L
@ Washington Mystics
70 - 80
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ New York Liberty
81 - 85
|
Aug 13, 2026
L
vs Phoenix Mercury
87 - 94
|
Aug 11, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
78 - 84
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
@ Minnesota Lynx
89 - 82
|
Aug 06, 2026
Connecticut Sun
L
vs New York Liberty
75 - 82
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
69 - 104
|
Aug 13, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
75 - 72
|
Aug 07, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
63 - 83
|
Aug 02, 2026
L
@ Chicago Sky
88 - 94
|
Jul 30, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Connecticut Sun defeated Los Angeles Sparks
84 - 81
|
May 30, 2026