WNBA
Thursday, August 20 at 08:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
IND
Indiana Fever
Away
24-13 (11-7 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
99.9
—
84.9
Projected Total: 184.8 (O/U: 185.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
IND: -150
|
DAL: +125
DAL
Dallas Wings
Home
21-16 (11-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Indiana Fever Win Prob
85.5%
+25.5% Value Edge
Dallas Wings Win Prob
14.5%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 85.5% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: IND -2.9 / DAL +2.9
IND covers
(-110)
+29.4% Edge
81.8%
DAL covers
(-110)
18.3%
Total
O/U: 185.8
OVER
(-110)
47.3%
UNDER
(-110)
+0.3% Edge
52.7%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 79.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: DAL holds an Offensive Rating of 102.7 vs IND's Defensive Rating of 105.2.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: IND ratings adjusted (OffRating: -5.2, DefRating: +0.8) with Kelsey Mitchell ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: DAL is 20-16 (Home: 10-6) vs IND 24-12 (Away: 11-6).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: DAL factor: 0.964 | IND factor: 1.05 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 85.5% of trials. Projected score: IND 100 - DAL 85.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 80.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.1
ORtg: 128.7
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 107.1
DRtg: 112.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 109.6
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
45.3% / 44.6%
3-Point %
35.6% / 32.2%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 80.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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Indiana Fever
Dallas Wings
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Indiana Fever
W
@ Toronto Tempo
101 - 95
|
Aug 18, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
95 - 91
|
Aug 16, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
98 - 87
|
Aug 14, 2026
W
vs New York Liberty
106 - 92
|
Aug 11, 2026
W
@ Chicago Sky
90 - 86
|
Aug 08, 2026
Dallas Wings
L
@ Golden State Valkyries
70 - 78
|
Aug 17, 2026
L
@ Indiana Fever
87 - 98
|
Aug 14, 2026
W
vs Toronto Tempo
94 - 88
|
Aug 12, 2026
L
@ Minnesota Lynx
90 - 103
|
Aug 09, 2026
L
vs Golden State Valkyries
76 - 94
|
Aug 07, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Indiana Fever defeated Dallas Wings
98 - 87
|
Aug 14, 2026