WNBA
Thursday, August 20 at 10:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
9-26 (3-14 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
82.7
—
92.1
Projected Total: 174.8 (O/U: 168.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CON: +595
|
LV: -935
LV
Las Vegas Aces
Home
25-13 (12-7 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
24.8%
+10.4% Value Edge
Las Vegas Aces Win Prob
75.2%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Las Vegas Aces to win outright in 75.2% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +13.4 / LV -13.4
CON covers
(-110)
+9.0% Edge
61.4%
LV covers
(-110)
38.6%
Total
O/U: 168.6
OVER
(-115)
+13.3% Edge
66.8%
UNDER
(-105)
33.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 76.9 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LV holds an Offensive Rating of 120.9 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 108.9.
- • 📊 Season Records: LV is 24-13 (Home: 11-7) vs CON 9-25 (Away: 3-13).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: LV factor: 1.008 | CON factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Las Vegas Aces winning outright in 75.2% of trials. Projected score: CON 83 - LV 92.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.2
ORtg: 111.8
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 122.3
DRtg: 106.6
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 105.3
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 45.4%
3-Point %
32.7% / 35.0%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 81.5%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Las Vegas Aces
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
75 - 82
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
69 - 104
|
Aug 13, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
75 - 72
|
Aug 07, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
63 - 83
|
Aug 02, 2026
Las Vegas Aces
L
vs Atlanta Dream
82 - 97
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
vs Minnesota Lynx
87 - 92
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
83 - 76
|
Aug 13, 2026
W
vs Washington Mystics
86 - 76
|
Aug 11, 2026
L
@ New York Liberty
71 - 111
|
Aug 09, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Las Vegas Aces defeated Connecticut Sun
101 - 94
|
May 15, 2026