WNBA
Friday, August 21 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MIN
Minnesota Lynx
Away
31-7 (17-2 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
W
Projected Final Score
92.3
—
84.1
Projected Total: 176.4 (O/U: 176.4)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MIN: -265
|
WSH: +215
WSH
Washington Mystics
Home
21-15 (13-7 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Minnesota Lynx Win Prob
72.0%
No Value Edge
Washington Mystics Win Prob
28.0%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Minnesota Lynx to win outright in 72.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MIN +8.2 / WSH -8.2
MIN covers
(-110)
+35.6% Edge
88.0%
WSH covers
(-110)
12.0%
Total
O/U: 176.4
OVER
(-110)
40.6%
UNDER
(-110)
+7.0% Edge
59.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.3 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: WSH holds an Offensive Rating of 109.7 vs MIN's Defensive Rating of 101.3.
- • 📊 Season Records: WSH is 20-14 (Home: 12-6) vs MIN 29-7 (Away: 15-2).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: WSH factor: 1.007 | MIN factor: 1.021 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Minnesota Lynx winning outright in 72.0% of trials. Projected score: MIN 92 - WSH 84.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 78.0
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.6
ORtg: 125.9
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 110.9
DRtg: 104.0
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 100.8
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.8% / 43.3%
3-Point %
38.0% / 36.8%
Free Throw %
78.5% / 76.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
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Minnesota Lynx
Washington Mystics
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Minnesota Lynx
W
@ Las Vegas Aces
92 - 87
|
Aug 15, 2026
W
@ Portland Fire
85 - 81
|
Aug 12, 2026
W
vs Dallas Wings
103 - 90
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
vs Las Vegas Aces
98 - 87
|
Aug 08, 2026
L
vs Los Angeles Sparks
82 - 89
|
Aug 06, 2026
Washington Mystics
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
80 - 70
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
76 - 83
|
Aug 13, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
76 - 86
|
Aug 11, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
95 - 75
|
Aug 09, 2026
W
vs Atlanta Dream
79 - 74
|
Aug 07, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Minnesota Lynx defeated Washington Mystics
78 - 76
|
Jun 24, 2026
Away
Washington Mystics defeated Minnesota Lynx
84 - 79
|
Jun 21, 2026
Injury Reports
Minnesota Lynx 5 reported
Washington Mystics 0 reported
No major injuries reported.