WNBA Saturday, August 22 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
IND

Indiana Fever

Away

24-14 (11-8 Away)

Last 5 Form
W W W W L
Projected Final Score
96.2 93.3
Projected Total: 189.5 (O/U: 189.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
IND: -150 | NY: +130
NY

New York Liberty

Home

23-15 (13-5 Home)

Last 5 Form
W L W W L

Simulated Outcome Probability

Indiana Fever Win Prob
57.6%
No Value Edge
New York Liberty Win Prob
42.4%
No Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 57.6% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: IND +2.9 / NY -2.9
IND covers (-110) +5.2% Edge 57.6%
NY covers (-110) 42.4%
Total O/U: 189.5
OVER (-110) +45.7% Edge 98.1%
UNDER (-110) 1.9%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 79.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: NY holds an Offensive Rating of 115.8 vs IND's Defensive Rating of 109.3.
  • Injury Impact: IND ratings adjusted (OffRating: -4.5, DefRating: +3.0) with Aliyah Boston ruled OUT.
  • 📊 Season Records: NY is 23-15 (Home: 13-5) vs IND 24-14 (Away: 11-8).
  • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NY factor: 1.002 | IND factor: 1.026 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 57.6% of trials. Projected score: IND 96 - NY 93.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

📊 Statistical Comparison

Pace: 80.0 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 128.3 Offensive Rating ORtg: 115.5
DRtg: 112.2 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 106.8

🎯 Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
45.3% / 46.2%
3-Point %
35.6% / 34.9%
Free Throw %
77.8% / 82.2%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Indiana Fever

New York Liberty

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Indiana Fever

L @ Dallas Wings
85 - 91 | Aug 20, 2026
W @ Toronto Tempo
101 - 95 | Aug 18, 2026
W @ Atlanta Dream
95 - 91 | Aug 16, 2026
W vs Dallas Wings
98 - 87 | Aug 14, 2026
W vs New York Liberty
106 - 92 | Aug 11, 2026

New York Liberty

L @ Chicago Sky
86 - 93 | Aug 18, 2026
W @ Connecticut Sun
82 - 75 | Aug 15, 2026
W vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 81 | Aug 13, 2026
L @ Indiana Fever
92 - 106 | Aug 11, 2026
W vs Las Vegas Aces
111 - 71 | Aug 09, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Indiana Fever defeated New York Liberty
106 - 92 | Aug 11, 2026
Home Indiana Fever defeated New York Liberty
108 - 88 | Jul 18, 2026
Home New York Liberty defeated Indiana Fever
83 - 75 | Jun 06, 2026

Injury Reports

Indiana Fever 1 reported

C Aliyah Boston
Out

New York Liberty 3 reported

G Elizabeth Balogun
Out
F Anneli Maley
Out
F Satou Sabally
Out