WNBA Saturday, August 22 at 09:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON

Connecticut Sun

Away

9-27 (3-15 Away)

Last 5 Form
W L L W L
Projected Final Score
91.4 80.3
Projected Total: 171.7 (O/U: 171.7)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CON: -455 | LA: +355
LA

Los Angeles Sparks

Home

13-24 (6-12 Home)

Last 5 Form
L L L L L

Simulated Outcome Probability

Connecticut Sun Win Prob
79.3%
No Value Edge
Los Angeles Sparks Win Prob
20.7%
No Value Edge

Our 10,000 iterations project the Connecticut Sun to win outright in 79.3% of simulated game-runs.

Simulator Cover Probability

Spread Line: CON +11.1 / LA -11.1
CON covers (-110) +26.9% Edge 79.3%
LA covers (-110) 20.7%
Total O/U: 171.7
OVER (-110) +27.2% Edge 79.6%
UNDER (-110) 20.4%

Model Simulation Deciders

  • ๐Ÿ€ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LA holds an Offensive Rating of 97.6 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 106.4.
  • ๐Ÿ“Š Season Records: LA is 13-24 (Home: 6-12) vs CON 9-27 (Away: 3-15).
  • ๐Ÿ”ฅ Momentum Factors: LA factor: 0.95 | CON factor: 1.008 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).

VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis

Best Bet

Our 10,000 simulations project the Connecticut Sun winning outright in 79.3% of trials. Projected score: CON 91 - LA 80.

WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits

๐Ÿ“Š Statistical Comparison

Pace: 76.5 Possessions per 40 min Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 114.7 Offensive Rating ORtg: 102.7
DRtg: 107.3 Defensive Rating (Lower is Better) DRtg: 113.7

๐ŸŽฏ Shooting Splits

Field Goal %
44.1% / 42.5%
3-Point %
32.7% / 32.5%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 76.8%
โšก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.

Top Team Performers

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Connecticut Sun

Los Angeles Sparks

Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)

Connecticut Sun

L @ Las Vegas Aces
78 - 101 | Aug 20, 2026
W vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77 | Aug 18, 2026
L vs New York Liberty
75 - 82 | Aug 15, 2026
L vs Atlanta Dream
69 - 104 | Aug 13, 2026
W vs Phoenix Mercury
75 - 72 | Aug 07, 2026

Los Angeles Sparks

L vs Atlanta Dream
88 - 124 | Aug 20, 2026
L @ Connecticut Sun
77 - 85 | Aug 18, 2026
L @ Washington Mystics
70 - 80 | Aug 15, 2026
L @ New York Liberty
81 - 85 | Aug 13, 2026
L vs Phoenix Mercury
87 - 94 | Aug 11, 2026

Head-to-Head History

Home Connecticut Sun defeated Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77 | Aug 18, 2026
Home Connecticut Sun defeated Los Angeles Sparks
84 - 81 | May 30, 2026

Injury Reports

Connecticut Sun 3 reported

C Brittney Griner
Out
G Leila Lacan
Out
C Olivia Nelson-Ododa
Day-To-Day

Los Angeles Sparks 2 reported

G Rae Burrell
Out
G Tonie Morgan
Out