WNBA
Saturday, August 22 at 09:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
9-27 (3-15 Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
W
L
Projected Final Score
91.4
—
80.3
Projected Total: 171.7 (O/U: 171.7)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CON: -455
|
LA: +355
LA
Los Angeles Sparks
Home
13-24 (6-12 Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
79.3%
No Value Edge
Los Angeles Sparks Win Prob
20.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Connecticut Sun to win outright in 79.3% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON +11.1 / LA -11.1
CON covers
(-110)
+26.9% Edge
79.3%
LA covers
(-110)
20.7%
Total
O/U: 171.7
OVER
(-110)
+27.2% Edge
79.6%
UNDER
(-110)
20.4%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ๐ Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.7 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • ๐ Offensive/Defensive Ratings: LA holds an Offensive Rating of 97.6 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 106.4.
- • ๐ Season Records: LA is 13-24 (Home: 6-12) vs CON 9-27 (Away: 3-15).
- • ๐ฅ Momentum Factors: LA factor: 0.95 | CON factor: 1.008 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Connecticut Sun winning outright in 79.3% of trials. Projected score: CON 91 - LA 80.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
๐ Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 78.8
ORtg: 114.7
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 102.7
DRtg: 107.3
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 113.7
๐ฏ Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 42.5%
3-Point %
32.7% / 32.5%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 76.8%
โก Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Los Angeles Sparks
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
78 - 101
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
75 - 82
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Atlanta Dream
69 - 104
|
Aug 13, 2026
W
vs Phoenix Mercury
75 - 72
|
Aug 07, 2026
Los Angeles Sparks
L
vs Atlanta Dream
88 - 124
|
Aug 20, 2026
L
@ Connecticut Sun
77 - 85
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
@ Washington Mystics
70 - 80
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ New York Liberty
81 - 85
|
Aug 13, 2026
L
vs Phoenix Mercury
87 - 94
|
Aug 11, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Connecticut Sun defeated Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77
|
Aug 18, 2026
Home
Connecticut Sun defeated Los Angeles Sparks
84 - 81
|
May 30, 2026