MLS
Wednesday, August 19 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
MTL
CF Montréal
Away
5-5-10 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.34
xG
—
1.71
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.05 (O/U: 3.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
MTL: +235
|
CLB: +110
CLB
Columbus Crew
Home
5-5-10 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
CF Montréal Win
29.3%
Draw / Tie
25.9%
Columbus Crew Win
44.8%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of CF Montréal Win: 29.3%, Draw: 25.9%, and Columbus Crew Win: 44.8%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.9%
#2
2-1
9.2%
#3
1-2
7.4%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
61.6%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
38.4%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: MTL -0.4 / CLB +0.4
MTL covers
(-110)
+2.8% Edge
55.2%
CLB covers
(-110)
44.8%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
+6.4% Edge
58.8%
UNDER
(-110)
41.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLB projected match xG: 1.7 | MTL projected match xG: 1.35 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLB Win: 44.8% | Draw: 25.9% | MTL Win: 29.3%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 61.6% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.9%), 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLB record: 5-5-10 (Home: ) vs MTL record: 5-5-10 (Away: ).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLB Moneyline** (44.8% simulated win probability vs 25.9% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **MTL N/A** (55.2% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (58.8% cover probability, projected total: 3.05). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (61.6% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
CF Montréal
L
vs D.C. United
1 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs New England Revolution
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
vs Inter Miami CF
0 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
@ Nashville SC
0 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
0 - 0
|
Jul 16, 2026
Columbus Crew
L
@ Charlotte FC
1 - 3
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Inter Miami CF
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs FC Cincinnati
2 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
vs New York City FC
1 - 2
|
Jul 22, 2026
W
vs Atlanta United FC
2 - 0
|
May 24, 2026