MLS
Saturday, August 22 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
DC
D.C. United
Away
5-9-7 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
xG
—
1.75
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.01 (O/U: 3.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
DC: +255
|
CLT: -100
CLT
Charlotte FC
Home
9-5-7 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
W
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
D.C. United Win
26.6%
Draw / Tie
25.3%
Charlotte FC Win
48.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of D.C. United Win: 26.6%, Draw: 25.3%, and Charlotte FC Win: 48.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.1%
#2
2-1
9.7%
#3
2-0
7.7%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
60.0%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
40.0%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: DC -0.5 / CLT +0.5
DC covers
(-110)
51.9%
CLT covers
(-110)
48.1%
Total
O/U: 3.5
OVER
(-110)
+5.0% Edge
57.4%
UNDER
(-110)
42.6%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: CLT projected match xG: 1.74 | DC projected match xG: 1.27 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: CLT Win: 48.1% | Draw: 25.3% | DC Win: 26.6%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 60.0% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.1%), 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.7%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: CLT record: 9-5-7 (Home: ) vs DC record: 5-9-7 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: CLT factor: 0.981 | DC factor: 0.931 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **CLT Moneyline** (48.1% simulated win probability vs 25.3% draw). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.5 Goals** (57.4% cover probability, projected total: 3.01). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (60.0% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
D.C. United
L
vs New England Revolution
0 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
1 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Nashville SC
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Toronto FC
2 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
@ Houston Dynamo FC
1 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
Charlotte FC
L
@ Toronto FC
3 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Chicago Fire FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
2 - 0
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
vs Atlanta United FC
2 - 2
|
Jul 22, 2026