MLS
Sunday, August 23 at 04:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
NYC
New York City FC
Away
7-6-8 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.26
xG
—
1.69
xG
Projected Match xG: 2.95 (O/U: 2.6)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
NYC: +205
|
NE: +120
NE
New England Revolution
Home
10-4-7 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
New York City FC Win
27.1%
Draw / Tie
26.8%
New England Revolution Win
46.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of New York City FC Win: 27.1%, Draw: 26.8%, and New England Revolution Win: 46.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
12.4%
#2
2-1
9.5%
#3
1-0
7.6%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
60.1%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
39.9%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: NYC +0.3 / NE -0.3
NYC covers
(-105)
+2.7% Edge
53.9%
NE covers
(-115)
46.1%
Total
O/U: 2.6
OVER
(-135)
56.9%
UNDER
(+105)
43.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: NE projected match xG: 1.69 | NYC projected match xG: 1.25 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: NE Win: 46.1% | Draw: 26.8% | NYC Win: 27.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 60.1% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (7.6%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: NE record: 10-3-7 (Home: ) vs NYC record: 7-5-8 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: NE factor: 1.001 | NYC factor: 1.001 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **NE Moneyline** (46.1% simulated win probability vs 26.8% draw). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.6 Goals** (56.9% cover probability, projected total: 2.95). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (60.1% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
New York City FC
L
@ FC Cincinnati
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
vs Philadelphia Union
2 - 3
|
Aug 16, 2026
L
vs Toronto FC
1 - 1
|
Jul 31, 2026
W
vs Chicago Fire FC
3 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026
W
@ Columbus Crew
2 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
New England Revolution
W
@ D.C. United
3 - 0
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 08, 2026
L
@ CF Montréal
2 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
vs Atlanta United FC
4 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026