MLS
Sunday, August 23 at 07:00 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
SKC
Sporting Kansas City
Away
4-3-14 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
L
L
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.31
xG
—
1.88
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.19 (O/U: 3.1)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
SKC: +350
|
ATL: -150
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Home
6-3-12 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Sporting Kansas City Win
25.5%
Draw / Tie
24.3%
Atlanta United FC Win
50.1%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Sporting Kansas City Win: 25.5%, Draw: 24.3%, and Atlanta United FC Win: 50.1%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.1%
#2
2-1
9.9%
#3
2-0
7.7%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
62.9%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
37.1%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: SKC +0.9 / ATL -0.9
SKC covers
(-115)
49.9%
ATL covers
(-105)
50.1%
Total
O/U: 3.1
OVER
(-110)
39.1%
UNDER
(-115)
+7.5% Edge
61.0%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: ATL projected match xG: 1.89 | SKC projected match xG: 1.31 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: ATL Win: 50.1% | Draw: 24.3% | SKC Win: 25.5%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 62.9% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (7.7%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: ATL record: 5-3-12 (Home: ) vs SKC record: 4-3-13 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.001 | SKC factor: 0.971 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **ATL Moneyline** (50.1% simulated win probability vs 24.3% draw). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.1 Goals** (61.0% cover probability, projected total: 3.19). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (62.9% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Sporting Kansas City
L
vs St. Louis CITY SC
1 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
@ Colorado Rapids
0 - 2
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
vs Houston Dynamo FC
0 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ LAFC
0 - 4
|
Jul 25, 2026
W
vs Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
Jul 22, 2026
Atlanta United FC
W
@ Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Red Bull New York
2 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
2 - 3
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ New England Revolution
1 - 4
|
Jul 25, 2026
L
@ Charlotte FC
2 - 2
|
Jul 22, 2026