Baltimore Orioles
Away
64-68 (30-34 Away)
St. Louis Cardinals
Home
66-67 (32-35 Home)
Simulated Outcome Probability
Our 10,000 iterations project the Baltimore Orioles to win outright in 64.0% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Model Simulation Deciders
- • đïž Ballpark Factor: Played at STL's stadium, which features highly pitcher-friendly park factors scaling down home-run expectations.
- • đ„ Momentum Streak: BAL enters this game on a hot streak (last 10 games win %: 56%) giving them a momentum advantage.
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Our 10,000 simulations project the Baltimore Orioles winning outright in 64.0% of run trials, with a projected score of BAL 3.8 - STL 2.5. The simulator identifies a positive expected value (+EV) edge on the spread with STL +1.5 covering in 52.4% of trials. Additionally, we lean towards the UNDER 6.5 which hit in 57.7% of runs.
No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Analysis
VegasSims simulated this matchup 10,000 times, resulting in a **65.4%** chance of a scoreless first inning. Away starter Trevor Rogers (K%: 20.5%, BB%: 7.0%) faces STL's top of the order (avg OBP: 35.4%). Home starter TBD (K%: 22.0%, BB%: 9.0%) matchups against BAL's first three hitters (avg OBP: 32.0%). **Best Bet**: **NRFI (Yes)**. With both starters showing strong control/strikeout rates, our simulator identifies a solid value edge (+4.6%) at -155.