WNBA
Friday, August 28 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CON
Connecticut Sun
Away
10-27 (3-15 Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
L
L
W
Projected Final Score
86.6
—
95.4
Projected Total: 182.0 (O/U: 182.5)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CON: +315
|
IND: -400
IND
Indiana Fever
Home
25-14 (13-6 Home)
Last 5 Form
W
W
L
L
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Connecticut Sun Win Prob
27.3%
+3.2% Value Edge
Indiana Fever Win Prob
72.7%
No Value Edge
Our 10,000 iterations project the Indiana Fever to win outright in 72.7% of simulated game-runs.
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CON -8.8 / IND +8.8
CON covers
(-110)
11.4%
IND covers
(-110)
+36.2% Edge
88.6%
Total
O/U: 182.5
OVER
(-110)
47.8%
UNDER
(-110)
52.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • 🏀 Pace Factor: Both teams combine for a projected pace of 77.6 possessions per 40 minutes.
- • 📈 Offensive/Defensive Ratings: IND holds an Offensive Rating of 129.6 vs CON's Defensive Rating of 108.8.
- • ❌ Injury Impact: IND ratings adjusted (OffRating: -4.5, DefRating: +3.0) with Aliyah Boston ruled OUT.
- • 📊 Season Records: IND is 25-14 (Home: 13-6) vs CON 10-27 (Away: 3-15).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: IND factor: 1.022 | CON factor: 0.978 (blending last 5 games + historical H2H).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
Our 10,000 simulations project the Indiana Fever winning outright in 72.7% of trials. Projected score: CON 87 - IND 95.
WNBA Team Efficiency & Splits
📊 Statistical Comparison
Pace: 76.5
Possessions per 40 min
Pace: 80.0
ORtg: 112.9
Offensive Rating
ORtg: 127.9
DRtg: 106.5
Defensive Rating (Lower is Better)
DRtg: 113.4
🎯 Shooting Splits
Field Goal %
44.1% / 45.3%
3-Point %
32.7% / 35.6%
Free Throw %
81.0% / 77.8%
⚡ Simulation scales points per possession using relative Offensive Ratings offset by Opponent Defensive Ratings.
Top Team Performers
Sort by:
Connecticut Sun
Indiana Fever
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Connecticut Sun
W
vs Chicago Sky
87 - 81
|
Aug 25, 2026
L
@ Los Angeles Sparks
68 - 77
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Las Vegas Aces
78 - 101
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
vs Los Angeles Sparks
85 - 77
|
Aug 18, 2026
L
vs New York Liberty
75 - 82
|
Aug 15, 2026
Indiana Fever
W
@ Chicago Sky
113 - 90
|
Aug 23, 2026
L
@ New York Liberty
102 - 109
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Dallas Wings
85 - 91
|
Aug 20, 2026
W
@ Toronto Tempo
101 - 95
|
Aug 18, 2026
W
@ Atlanta Dream
95 - 91
|
Aug 16, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Home
Indiana Fever defeated Connecticut Sun
123 - 88
|
Jul 22, 2026
Away
Indiana Fever defeated Connecticut Sun
85 - 75
|
Jun 13, 2026