MLS
Saturday, August 29 at 04:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CHI
Chicago Fire FC
Away
11-3-6 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
L
W
W
W
L
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.57
xG
—
1.58
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.15 (O/U: 3.2)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CHI: +135
|
SEA: +185
SEA
Seattle Sounders FC
Home
7-4-9 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
L
L
L
Simulated Outcome Probability
Chicago Fire FC Win
37.1%
Draw / Tie
25.5%
Seattle Sounders FC Win
37.5%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Chicago Fire FC Win: 37.1%, Draw: 25.5%, and Seattle Sounders FC Win: 37.5%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
11.6%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
1-2
8.3%
#4
2-2
6.4%
#5
0-1
5.5%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
64.2%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
35.8%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CHI +0.5 / SEA -0.5
CHI covers
(-110)
+10.1% Edge
62.5%
SEA covers
(-110)
37.5%
Total
O/U: 3.2
OVER
(-110)
38.9%
UNDER
(-110)
+8.7% Edge
61.1%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: SEA projected match xG: 1.57 | CHI projected match xG: 1.59 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: SEA Win: 37.5% | Draw: 25.5% | CHI Win: 37.1%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 64.2% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (11.6%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%), 2-2 (6.4%), 0-1 (5.5%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: SEA record: 7-4-9 (Home: ) vs CHI record: 11-3-6 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: SEA factor: 0.941 | CHI factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **SEA Moneyline** (37.5% simulated win probability vs 25.5% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CHI +0.5** (62.5% cover probability). 🔒 **Totals Play:** **UNDER 3.2 Goals** (61.1% cover probability, projected total: 3.15). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (64.2% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Chicago Fire FC
L
@ Red Bull New York
1 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
W
@ Orlando City SC
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Portland Timbers
2 - 1
|
Aug 16, 2026
W
vs Charlotte FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ New York City FC
1 - 3
|
Jul 25, 2026
Seattle Sounders FC
L
@ FC Cincinnati
1 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
vs Austin FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 19, 2026
L
vs Vancouver Whitecaps
0 - 2
|
Aug 16, 2026
L
@ Portland Timbers
1 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
0 - 1
|
Jul 25, 2026