MLS
Saturday, August 29 at 07:30 PM UTC
10,000 Sim Trials Run
CLT
Charlotte FC
Away
9-5-7 ( Away)
Last 5 Form
W
L
W
L
W
Projected Expected Goals (xG)
1.52
xG
—
1.82
xG
Projected Match xG: 3.34 (O/U: 2.8)
Sportsbook Consensus Odds
CLT: +180
|
ATL: +135
ATL
Atlanta United FC
Home
6-3-12 ( Home)
Last 5 Form
L
L
W
W
W
Simulated Outcome Probability
Charlotte FC Win
31.0%
Draw / Tie
25.3%
Atlanta United FC Win
43.7%
Our 10,000 Dixon-Coles iterations project a 3-way distribution of Charlotte FC Win: 31.0%, Draw: 25.3%, and Atlanta United FC Win: 43.7%.
Top Projected Exact Scorelines
Dixon-Coles Poisson Matrix
#1
1-1
10.6%
#2
2-1
8.6%
#3
1-2
7.7%
#4
2-2
7.5%
#5
2-0
5.9%
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Projected Probability
BTTS — YES
Both teams score 1+ goals
66.5%
BTTS — NO
At least one team shut out
33.5%
Simulator Cover Probability
Spread
Line: CLT +0.1 / ATL -0.1
CLT covers
(-110)
+3.9% Edge
56.3%
ATL covers
(-115)
43.7%
Total
O/U: 2.8
OVER
(-135)
+7.4% Edge
64.8%
UNDER
(+100)
35.2%
Model Simulation Deciders
- • ⚽ Expected Goals (xG) Baseline: ATL projected match xG: 1.79 | CLT projected match xG: 1.54 (includes +0.35 home-pitch advantage).
- • 🎲 Dixon-Coles 3-Way Probabilities: ATL Win: 43.7% | Draw: 25.3% | CLT Win: 31.0%.
- • 🥅 Both Teams to Score (BTTS): 66.5% probability | Top Scorelines: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.7%), 2-2 (7.5%), 2-0 (5.9%).
- • 📊 Standings & Records: ATL record: 6-3-12 (Home: ) vs CLT record: 9-5-7 (Away: ).
- • 🔥 Momentum Factors: ATL factor: 1.021 | CLT factor: 1.031 (based on recent form).
VegasSims Best Bet & Analysis
Best Bet
🎯 **3-Way Moneyline:** Play **ATL Moneyline** (43.7% simulated win probability vs 25.3% draw). 🛡️ **Spread Play:** Take **CLT +0.1** (56.3% cover probability). 🔥 **Totals Play:** **OVER 2.8 Goals** (64.8% cover probability, projected total: 3.34). ⚽ **BTTS Pick:** **Both Teams to Score - YES** (66.5% expected probability).
Recent Results History (Last 5 Games)
Charlotte FC
W
vs D.C. United
3 - 1
|
Aug 22, 2026
L
@ Toronto FC
3 - 3
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Columbus Crew
3 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Chicago Fire FC
1 - 2
|
Aug 01, 2026
W
@ Red Bull New York
2 - 0
|
Jul 25, 2026
Atlanta United FC
W
vs Sporting Kansas City
2 - 1
|
Aug 23, 2026
W
@ Minnesota United FC
2 - 1
|
Aug 19, 2026
W
vs Red Bull New York
2 - 1
|
Aug 15, 2026
L
@ Philadelphia Union
2 - 3
|
Aug 01, 2026
L
@ New England Revolution
1 - 4
|
Jul 25, 2026
Head-to-Head History
Away
Atlanta United FC defeated Charlotte FC
2 - 2
|
Jul 22, 2026